Plan B By S.j.d. Peterson 12 High Quality
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Oceans and seas play a vital role in society, and many countries rely on access to the sea for food and social and economic development (Douvere and Ehler 2009). Marine and coastal ecosystems worldwide are under increasing pressure because of a wide variety of human activities (Kannen 2014, Tamis et al. 2016), and planning and management of marine space is a matter of national and international importance.
Marine or maritime spatial planning (MSP) has developed as a mechanism to cope with the significant challenges that come along with the allocation of human activities and ecological functions to marine space. MSP is seen as a cross-cutting policy tool enabling public authorities and stakeholders to apply a coordinated, integrated, and transboundary approach to marine development (European Commission 2007, Foley et al. 2010, Katsanevakis et al. 2011). In 2014, the European Union (EU) adopted the Maritime Spatial Planning Directive (2014/89/EU). The main purpose of MSP, according to the directive, is to promote sustainable development, to identify the use of maritime space, and to manage spatial uses and conflicts in marine areas (European Commission 2014). However, management of marine space, on short and long time scales, across a wide range of socioeconomic sectors and national and transnational boundaries, under the influence of natural processes and climate change, with their associated uncertainty, is a daunting task for which managers and planners are often ill-prepared (Mayer et al. 2013).
The MSP Challenge simulation platform has been developed to explore these ideas further in the context of ecosystem-based MSP. The MSP Challenge has been designed to help decision makers, stakeholders, and students understand and manage the maritime (blue) economy and marine environment. It uses advanced game technology and aspects of gameplay to engage and facilitate planners and stakeholders in their dialogue and support their learning. To enhance the ability to represent ecological effects of spatial plans (Steenbeek 2018), the simulation platform has been integrated with the ecosystem modeling approach Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE; Christensen and Walters 2004, Heymans et al. 2016). Here, we examine if EwE can be connected to MSP, considering the range of constraints imposed by fast model runs, while still providing cascading ecological feedback. The connection is tested by adapting two published ecological models for use in MSP sessions. We conclude with lessons learned and identify future developments of the simulation platform.
The MSP Challenge simulation platform integrates best available geographic, maritime, and marine data provided by many proprietary institutions (e.g., Copernicus, EMODnet, HELCOM, IMO) with science-based simulation models for shipping, energy, and ecology. These data and models are linked together in a Unity game-engine based interactive platform (Abspoel et al. 2020). The simulation platform allows anyone, experts as well as nonexperts, to operate it for planning support such as stakeholder engagement, codesign, interactive scenario development, professional learning, and student education. The current platform hosts three editions, for the North Sea, Baltic Sea, and Clyde marine region. Because the platform is built in a highly modular fashion, it can host any sea basin in the world.
We designed and created a connection between the existing MSP Challenge simulation platform and the EwE approach to translate the gradual implementation of spatial plans into changes in environmental conditions and fisheries regulations (henceforth called pressures). These pressures were incorporated into the calculations of Ecospace to affect the state of the marine ecosystem components over time and space. Aggregated, spatially explicit Ecospace predictions (henceforth called outcomes) were sent back to the MSP Challenge to disseminate the state of the ecosystem components to session participants (Fig. 1).
We integrated two existing published and previously fitted EwE models into the MSP Challenge simulation platform: one representing the North Sea and the other the Firth of Clyde (west coast of Scotland). Because the two systems differ greatly in spatial scale, species diversity, spatial homogeneity, and planning challenges, we included both case studies here to provide a broad overview of model integration challenges as a guideline for similar future exercises.
The North Sea is a relative shallow sea of approximately 570,000 km and is one of the busiest seas in the world, with intense shipping movement and fisheries targeting mainly cod (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), herring (Clupea harengus), and saithe (pollock, Pollachius virens). Oil and gas extraction has been an important economic sector since the 1960s, especially for the UK, Norway, and the Netherlands, and more recently, aquaculture has been developed in the area. Countries bordering the North Sea are planning to install up to 62 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement on CO2 emissions reductions. Hence, the growing need to accommodate offshore wind park construction will be one of the main drivers for future development, resulting in spatial claims and possible conflicts with other uses. Increasing development in the North Sea has cross-border impacts, which require the involved organizations to cooperate more efficiently regarding the establishment of coherent international networks of MPAs, dealing with cumulative ecological impacts, multiple use of space (for example, offshore wind energy coinciding with aquaculture or other forms of energy), and land-sea interactions, among other factors. Because national policies leave room for different interpretations, countries do not always follow comparable methods and approaches for development within their areas of jurisdiction.
The NorthSEE project aimed to achieve greater coherence between MSP processes and maritime spatial plans, as well as furthering sustainable development in the North Sea through MSP. Several national MSP authorities and knowledge institutions worked together to develop and share knowledge on key economic sectors and future developments, transnational planning, and institutional developments. As part of the NorthSEE project, the North Sea area was captured in an updated version of the MSP Challenge simulation platform to engage and teach planners and sectoral stakeholders about planning challenges in the North Sea.
The Ecospace map was defined at 93 rows by 67 columns at 1.5 1.5 km cells to capture fine-scale planning activities in the area. The spatial distributions of species in the Firth of Clyde were determined by habitat preferences and functional responses to depth, whereas fleet activity was restricted by habitat type. Habitat types were grouped into five categories: mud, rock, sand, coarse sediment, and mixed sediment. The minimum, maximum, and optimum depths for functional groups were taken from AquaMaps (Kaschner et al. 2016), a global distribution model for marine species. AquaMaps depth tolerance ranges were converted into Gaussian functional responses and assigned to functional groups to determine their spatial distributions through the Ecospace HFCM. By using Gaussian response functions, the habitat capacity of functional groups were multiplied by 1 in Ecospace cells, which corresponded with their optimum depths having no diminishing effect. The multiplier, and therefore habitat capacity, declined in cells with depths greater or less than optimum, eventually reaching zero at tolerance extremes.
Initial pressures of bottom disturbance and artificial habitat had negligible effects on the total biomass and overall biomass distribution of functional groups in the Firth of Clyde. This was not because of their lack of impact, but rather because of the low intensity and distribution of these pressures in the Clyde Marine Region. Despite this limited impact, the biomass of invertebrate groups increased in areas where artificial habitat had been created by the presence of ports and marinas. Invertebrate biomass declined in the presence of bottom disturbance. Whereas the extent of these pressure layers had minimal effects at the start of gameplay, spatial plans developed during game sessions showed that player allocation of waste disposal sites or artificial structures could drastically influence the ecology of the Clyde Marine Region.
The MSP Challenge simulation platform, enhanced with the scientific ecosystem models presented here, has the potential to serve as a powerful planning support tool and learning environment, revealing ecological complexities and dynamics of marine food webs under the direct and indirect repercussions of planned human activities. Ecological conservation and marine renewable resource management are complex processes, especially when tightly interwoven with the wide range of planning challenges offered by the MSP Challenge simulation platform. The cascading food web dynamics add ecological repercussions to the gameplay, which encourages players to pay attention to the ecosystem, rather than treating ecological issues as an afterthought.
MSP test sessions indicated that overfamiliarity with the geography of a real-life area could hamper MSP Challenge uptake. Keijser et al. (2018) observed that perceptions among the participants differed greatly on the ground of familiarity with MSP processes: participants less familiar with MSP benefitted the most from the sessions. The authors hypothesize that MSP Challenge sessions are most effective for participants with limited personal knowledge or involvement with the sea area or specific sectoral interests. These potential challenges can be addressed via a well thought-out plan of objectives, roles, and goals for a given session, tailored to a specific audience, and calling for a specific role of the so-called game master and session moderator (Abspoel et al. 2020).
The MSP Challenge North Sea edition and Clyde Marine Region edition were co-funded by the EU Interreg NorthSEE and EU SimCelt projects, respectively. The link between MSP Challenge and EwE and the Ecopath model for the North Sea were partially funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management and Rijkswaterstaat. The Ecopath model for the Clyde Marine Region was partially funded by the Scottish Government. Research by first author J. S. is part of pending PhD research. Research by coauthor X. K. is part of pending PhD research on the use of serious gaming in (transboundary) maritime spatial planning at Wageningen University, The Netherlands, with support from Rijkswaterstaat. Research by co-author I. M. is cofunded by The National Natural Science Foundation of China (71774024). The MSP Challenge and Ecopath modeling approach are open-source, community-based, not-for-profit initiatives. Breda University of Applied Sciences, the Netherlands, is custodian of the MSP Challenge Simulation Platform. All organizations and persons who contribute to the MSP Challenge are credited at the user community wiki accessible through the website We express gratitude to Dr. Steve Mackinson and Dr. Chris Lynam at CEFAS for providing the North Sea model and for their support in adapting the model for maritime spatial planning purposes. We also wish to acknowledge EuroMarine for their funding of the scenario building workshop in Sète, France, in 2015, which led to the discussions and subsequent collaborations that produced the MSP-EwE merger. Without the support of EuroMarine, this paper would not have been written. 153554b96e
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